Intro
```html| Area | Scenario | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Economic and trade | Geoeconomic confrontation | Downside |
| Economic and trade | Single-supplier cut-off | Downside |
| Economic and trade | Global financial crisis | Downside |
| Economic and trade | Sovereign funding crisis | Downside |
| Economic and trade | Coordinated sovereign debt reset | Upside |
| Economic and trade | Emerging-market growth breakout | Upside |
| Geopolitical and security | Maritime chokepoint closure | Downside |
| Geopolitical and security | Hybrid campaign by a hostile state | Downside |
| Geopolitical and security | Political legitimacy crisis | Downside |
| Geopolitical and security | Mass displacement shock | Downside |
| Geopolitical and security | Great-power détente and peace dividend | Upside |
| Geopolitical and security | Middle East regional settlement | Upside |
| Energy, climate and resources | Energy supply shock | Downside |
| Energy, climate and resources | Catastrophic disaster in the core | Downside |
| Energy, climate and resources | Food and water system shock | Downside |
| Energy, climate and resources | Energy abundance breakthrough | Upside |
| Energy, climate and resources | Agricultural yield revolution | Upside |
| Technology and infrastructure | Critical infrastructure collapse | Downside |
| Technology and infrastructure | Rapid AI diffusion shock | Downside |
| Technology and infrastructure | Superintelligence takeoff | Upside |
| Technology and infrastructure | Digital public infrastructure leapfrog | Upside |
| Health | Pandemic with a novel pathogen | Downside |
| Health | Biomedical breakthrough wave | Upside |
| Health | Hundred-day pandemic defence | Upside |
