Space
A destabilizing frontier emerges as nuclear weapons in space threaten satellites, global infrastructure, and crisis stability, with the United States, Russia, and China each shaping the risks and responses.
Critical Technology
AI in precision agriculture can revolutionize global food systems, but its full potential will only be realized if access, infrastructure, and governance keep pace with technological advances.
Cybersecurity
An integrated, state-driven cyber enterprise combining global reach, strategic patience, and comprehensive domestic control.
Drones
A balanced overview at how the US and China are shaping the future of warfare through competing advances in unmanned systems and counter-drone defences.
Insights
Modernising outdated GEO-era spectrum rules is essential to unlock the full potential of low Earth orbit satellites, maintain U.S. space leadership, and counter rising global competition.
Insights
Undersea cables, carrying most of the world’s data, face shared security concerns as both China and the U.S. are scrutinized for roles in infrastructure access and alleged cable interception, highlighting the need for international cooperation and transparent protection measures.
Insights
DeepSeek’s R1 AI model rivals OpenAI at a fraction of the cost, showcasing China’s rapid innovation gains, raising national security concerns over open-source proliferation, and highlighting how export restrictions can drive efficiency breakthroughs that reshape the global AI race.
Insights
India and China cautiously resume selective trade after a five-year freeze, reopening border passes, restoring flights, and negotiating key commodity supplies within a “managed rivalry” framework.
Japan
Japan is advancing AI and cyber capabilities through soft-law governance, dual-use innovation, and new active defense measures, positioning them as central pillars of its national strategy.
Measuring Capability. Mapping Strategy.
Bronze Age National Capability Assessments
A cradle of urban civilisation, Sumer fused groundbreaking innovations, economic reach, and cultural influence to shape the foundations of statecraft in the ancient Near East.
Old Kingdom Egypt (c. 2686–2181 BCE) assessment against the Global Institute for National Capability (GINC) National Capability Framework, applying the Emerging National Capability Ratings scale to an ancient context.
In 2025, most major economies have refreshed or are updating their AI strategies, with global leaders driving investment and governance while others focus on capacity, sovereignty, and trust.
The U.S. national AI strategy seeks to secure global leadership by fostering a decentralized, innovation-driven ecosystem that advances R&D, talent, and infrastructure while promoting ethical, competitive, and safe AI in coordination with industry, allies, and states.
Akkad forged the world’s first true empire, uniting Mesopotamia under a centralised monarchy that blended military power, administrative sophistication, and expansive trade networks into a model of Bronze Age imperial dominance.
An urban powerhouse of the Bronze Age, the Indus Valley Civilisation blended advanced city planning, economic integration, and cultural cohesion to create one of history’s most sophisticated and enigmatic ancient societies.
China’s rise from a minor shipbuilder to the world’s dominant dual-use maritime power has reshaped global shipbuilding capacity, leaving South Korea and Japan in niche roles and the U.S. far behind with strategic risks for security and trade.
A dynamic snapshot of national capability across hard, soft, and economic power, tracking emerging strengths and strategic resilience.
GINC’s 2025 Global Fragility Ranking reveals the cities most at risk worldwide—highlighting urban centers where economic, environmental, and governance pressures converge to threaten stability and resilience.
QUICK TAKE · AI Summary Gaza City is ranked the world’s most fragile city in 2025, following extreme conflict, institutional collapse, and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. All five fragility dimensions—security, governance, socioeconomic, environmental, and infrastructure—are critically degraded, creating compounding risks and barriers to recovery. The next five years will
How Huawei is turning sanctions into strategy—reshaping global tech power through 5G, AI chips, and a self-reliant vision for China’s digital future.
