- US midterms and the AI sell-off powered the week, lifting wealth concentration, AI capital concentration and stretched asset valuations.
- European security rounded out the top five, with commercial spyware up 30 per cent and hybrid warfare up 16.
- Expectations point the other way: political anger is expected to fade, and AI money to flow to data centres and science rather than agents.
The United States dominated the index this week, driven by the midterms and the AI sell-off. Three of the five fastest-rising trends followed on in wealth concentration, AI capital concentration and stretched asset valuations. The other two are European security stories in commercial spyware and hybrid warfare. Interestingly, the Expectations Index fell on wealth concentration and executive overreach while attention to both rose.
Attention Index
Commercial spyware was the largest driver, up 30 per cent from 131 to 157. Apple warned iPhone users in 99 countries of mercenary spyware (Techcrunch), Germany confirmed that Bundestag members and ministers were among them; the attacker unknown (Euronews). The rise came from the United Kingdom, up 138 per cent, and the United States, up 40, but not from Germany, where the trend already stands at eleven times typical trend levels.
Wealth concentration, up 26 per cent rising from 212 to 246; in the United States it nearly doubled. California voted on Proposition 40, the first US billionaire tax. It was previously failing 54 to 46 on partial returns after billionaires gave $333 million against it (The Hill). Elon Musk lost about $113 billion in two days, and Bill Gates backed a wealth tax (Fortune).
AI capital concentration, up 20 per cent, after 67 per cent last week. Anthropic's IPO valuation was cut to $1.1–1.3 trillion from $1.5 trillion after the sell-off (Bloomberg). OpenAI lowered its own to $1.25 trillion, and Ramp data showed company AI spending flattening (TechCrunch). The index rose from 344 to 407, now the 25th highest of the 250. India rose 33 per cent, the United Kingdom 25, France 24.
Hybrid warfare, up 16 per cent, and 82 per cent over the month. The UK's National Cyber Security Centre, part of GCHQ, published its Annual Review on 3 November: 1,831 incidents in the year to August, 80 nationally significant (techUK). Its chief, Richard Horne, warned of "an unprecedented rise in the number of cyber incidents" ahead. It names Russia for sustained attacks on military networks below the threshold of war, Iran for operations against individuals in the UK, and China as the most serious threat, "highly likely" to turn AI on critical infrastructure (NCSC). On 5 November hoax bomb threats hit at least 12 European flights, 27 by one count; officials suspect Russia (Foreign Policy). Poland ran a border operation at Kaliningrad, and US European Command began a vigilance campaign (Military Times). State cyber intrusion rose 10 per cent.
Stretched asset valuations, up 14 per cent. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.3 per cent and the S&P 500 4.4 per cent on 5 November, the worst day since April 2025, on weak Qualcomm and Arm results, the election and AI bubble fears (NBC News). Ten AI-linked companies account for over half the S&P 500's gain since ChatGPT (Bloomberg). The index rose from 79 to 89. The United States rose 24 per cent, Taiwan 144.
Also moving. Executive overreach rose 13 per cent, political polarisation 11, nuclear proliferation 10. Weakening multilateralism fell 20 per cent as the UN anniversary passed but stayed in the top ten. Ransomware fell 17 per cent and has halved over the month. The top five are unchanged: Global South coalitions at 20 times the typical trend, deepfakes 14, private military forces 13, immigration enforcement 13, corruption 10.
Expectations Index
The Expectations Index looks ahead and this week it suggests that the political anger behind the midterms is not expected to last, and that the money in AI is expected to go into data centres and science, not AI agents.
Wealth and emergency powers: a lot of attention, but not expected to grow. The chance that wealth concentration gets worse has fallen from 47 to 27 per cent in four weeks. The chance that executive overreach grows has fallen from 46 to 28 per cent. Both were in the news all week, yet the index expects California's vote and the midterms to hold both back.
The stock market fall was no surprise. The chance that asset valuations stay stretched is 77 per cent, one of the highest in the index, and it did not change in the week shares fell. In plain terms, the fall was expected. The chance that AI capital concentration grows is 58 per cent, down from 66 a month ago, after Anthropic's valuation was cut.
AI data centres and science: yes. AI agents: no. The chance that AI for science grows is 80 per cent, the highest of any trend. Open-weight AI models are also at 80 and AI data centre build-out at 73. The chance that AI agents take off has fallen from 44 to 17 per cent in four weeks. AI job displacement is also at 17: the index does not expect AI to take many jobs soon.
Supply shocks are the fastest-growing worry. Over the past three months the chance of commodity price swings has risen by 44 points to 30 per cent, and of shipping lanes being contested from 14 to 45. The chance that governments build up stockpiles has risen from 35 to 73 per cent in four weeks. Undersea cables and pipelines rose fastest of all, by 61 points to 11 per cent, but that rests on very few readings.
Government bonds look safer than a month ago. The chance of strain in government bond markets fell from 51 to 29 per cent in four weeks as borrowing costs eased. This is the trend the index measures best.
The European security stories are a blind spot. The index has very few readings on hybrid warfare, at 10 per cent, and none on commercial spyware. It cannot say where either is going.
Least likely to grow. Energy import dependence at 3 per cent, trade corridor competition at 5, and immigration enforcement at 6. Immigration enforcement is the fourth most-watched trend in the world, but the index does not expect it to go further.
