Future of Power. 2026 National Capability Ratings.
Mapping the global capability frontier across nine strategic domains
- 🇺🇸 United States leads the 2026 National Capability Ratings, positioned on the global capability frontier (T1) across eight of nine domains. Governance & Integrity represents the sole exception, where the US sits at Tier 3.
- 🇸🇬 Singapore secures second place, achieving frontier status (T1) in seven domains. The nation sits at Tier 4 in both Critical Technology and National Security.
- 🇨🇭 Switzerland claims third position with frontier capability (T1) across six domains. Critical Technology and Financial Strength both sit at Tier 2, whilst National Security sits at Tier 5.
Power, prosperity and resilience represent the most consequential priorities for any nation. A nation's long-term comparative advantage rests on national capability: the generational systems, structures and frontier capabilities that enable it to endure, adapt and compound advantage over time.
GINC maps and measures national capability to identify the Capability Frontier; the nations leading in indigenous generational capability across all nine domains of the National Capability Framework. Built on individual assessments of over 200 discrete capabilities encompassing hard, soft and economic capability, our ratings prioritise unit-level capability quality rather than aggregate volume. Being on the Capability Frontier represents the future of power.
Figure 1 presents the top 20 nations in the 2026 National Capability Ratings, ranked lexicographically by the number of domains in which they achieve Capability Frontier status. This methodology privileges frontier leadership over average or weighted capability levels.
Figure 1. Top 20 Nations: 2026 National Capability Ratings
| National Capability | Hard Capability | Soft Capability | Econ Capability | Frontiers | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Nation | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI | T1 | T2 | T3 |
| 1 | 🇺🇸 United States | T1 | T1 | T1 | T1 | T1 | T3 | T1 | T1 | T1 | 8 | - | 1 |
| 2 | 🇸🇬 Singapore | T4 | T1 | T4 | T1 | T1 | T1 | T1 | T1 | T1 | 7 | - | - |
| 3 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | T2 | T1 | T5 | T1 | T1 | T1 | T2 | T1 | T1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| 4 | 🇮🇱 Israel | T2 | T2 | T1 | T1 | T2 | T1 | T3 | T1 | T1 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | T2 | T1 | T4 | T2 | T1 | T1 | T1 | T1 | T2 | 5 | 3 | - |
| 6 | 🇰🇷 South Korea | T2 | T1 | T3 | T2 | T1 | T2 | T2 | T1 | T1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 7 | 🇫🇮 Finland | T4 | T1 | T5 | T2 | T1 | T1 | T3 | T2 | T3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | T7 | T3 | T5 | T1 | T2 | T1 | T3 | T2 | T1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 9 | 🇳🇴 Norway | T4 | T1 | T4 | T3 | T1 | T1 | T2 | T3 | T3 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | T2 | T1 | T4 | T3 | T1 | T2 | T2 | T2 | T2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 11 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | T5 | T2 | T5 | T2 | T1 | T1 | T2 | T2 | T2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| 12 | 🇦🇪 UAE | T5 | T1 | T4 | T4 | T1 | T2 | T2 | T2 | T2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| 13 | 🇯🇵 Japan | T3 | T1 | T3 | T4 | T1 | T3 | T2 | T2 | T2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | 🇩🇪 Germany | T2 | T2 | T4 | T4 | T1 | T4 | T1 | T3 | T3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | 🇨🇳 China | T2 | T1 | T2 | T3 | T2 | T4 | T3 | T2 | T2 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | 🇫🇷 France | T3 | T2 | T2 | T4 | T2 | T5 | T1 | T3 | T3 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | T4 | T3 | T3 | T4 | T2 | T4 | T1 | T4 | T4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | 🇹🇼 Taiwan | T6 | T4 | T5 | T5 | T3 | T4 | T4 | T2 | T2 | - | 2 | 1 |
| 19 | 🇦🇺 Australia | T5 | T3 | T4 | T4 | T2 | T3 | T3 | T4 | T4 | - | 1 | 3 |
| 20 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | T5 | T3 | T8 | T5 | T2 | T4 | T4 | T3 | T3 | - | 1 | 3 |
Source. GINC Data Laboratory, February 2026
Figure 2 identifies the frontier nations across each of the nine capability domains. The emerging assessment uses synthetic simulation to develop a capability rating for each nation across approximately 250 discrete capabilities. These capability ratings are aggregated into capability group scores. Using Pareto domination analysis, countries are then assigned to tiers within each domain, with Tier 1 (the frontier) identifying nations that are not dominated by any peer in that specific capability area.
Figure 2. Frontier Nations by Capability Domain
| Capability Domain | ABBREV | Frontier Nations (T1) | T1 | T2 | T3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Capability | |||||
| Critical Technology | CT | 🇺🇸 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | SI | 🇨🇳🇫🇮🇯🇵🇰🇷🇳🇱🇳🇴🇸🇬🇸🇪🇨🇭🇦🇪🇺🇸 | 11 | 3 | 2 |
| National Security | NS | 🇮🇱🇺🇸 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Soft Capability | |||||
| Human Capital | HC | 🇪🇪🇮🇱🇸🇬🇨🇭🇺🇸 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Information Influence | II | 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇯🇵🇰🇷🇳🇱🇳🇴🇸🇬🇸🇪🇨🇭🇦🇪🇺🇸 | 11 | 8 | 1 |
| Governance Integrity | GI | 🇩🇰🇪🇪🇫🇮🇮🇱🇳🇴🇸🇬🇸🇪🇨🇭 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| Economic Capability | |||||
| Financial Strength | FS | 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇸🇬🇸🇪🇨🇭🇬🇧🇺🇸 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Production & Innovation | PI | 🇮🇱🇰🇷🇸🇬🇸🇪🇨🇭🇺🇸 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Investment & Trade | IT | 🇪🇪🇮🇱🇰🇷🇸🇬🇨🇭🇺🇸 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
Source. GINC Data Laboratory, February 2026
