Hard Power

Future of Hard Power: 2026 National Capability Ratings

🇺🇸 The United States is the only nation to reach the Capability Frontier (Tier 1) across all three Hard Capability domains: Critical Technology, Strategic Infrastructure and National Security.
🇨🇳 China and France share second place overall. Both hold T2 in Critical Tech and Strategic Infra and both T2 in National Security.
Germany and Netherlands are equal 4th. Both T1 in Critical Tech and Strategic Infra but both T4 in National Security
Israel, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Norway and UAE all T2 in Strategic Infra with varied profiles in Critical Tech and National Security

2026 National Hard Capability Ratings

Figure 1 presents the top 20 nations in the 2026 National Hard Capability Ratings, ranked lexicographically by the number of domains in which they achieve Capability Frontier status. This methodology privileges frontier leadership over average or weighted capability levels.

Figure 1. Top 20 Nations: 2026 Hard Capability Ratings

Hard Capability		Hard Capability			Soft Capability			Econ Capability			Frontiers
#	Nation	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI	T1	T2	T3
1	🇺🇸 United States	T1	T1	T1	T3	T1	T7	T1	T1	T1	7	-	1
2	🇨🇳 China	T1	T1	T2	T3	T1	T7	T2	T1	T2	4	3	1
2	🇫🇷 France	T1	T1	T2	T4	T1	T5	T2	T3	T3	3	2	2
4	🇩🇪 Germany	T1	T1	T4	T4	T1	T4	T2	T2	T3	3	2	1
4	🇳🇱 Netherlands	T1	T1	T4	T3	T1	T2	T2	T2	T2	3	4	1
6	🇮🇱 Israel	T2	T1	T2	T3	T2	T3	T4	T1	T3	2	3	3
7	🇯🇵 Japan	T2	T1	T3	T4	T1	T3	T2	T1	T2	3	3	2
7	🇰🇷 South Korea	T2	T1	T3	T2	T1	T2	T3	T1	T2	3	4	2
9	🇸🇬 Singapore	T3	T1	T3	T1	T1	T1	T1	T1	T1	7	-	2
10	🇳🇴 Norway	T3	T1	T5	T2	T1	T1	T2	T4	T3	3	2	2
11	🇦🇪 UAE	T4	T1	T4	T4	T2	T2	T2	T3	T2	1	4	1
12	🇨🇭 Switzerland	T2	T2	T6	T1	T1	T1	T1	T1	T1	6	2	-
13	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	T2	T3	T3	T4	T1	T4	T2	T4	T4	1	2	2
14	🇸🇪 Sweden	T3	T2	T5	T2	T1	T1	T2	T1	T2	3	4	1
15	🇩🇰 Denmark	T4	T2	T6	T2	T2	T1	T3	T2	T2	1	5	1
15	🇫🇮 Finland	T4	T2	T6	T2	T2	T1	T4	T2	T3	1	4	1
17	🇶🇦 Qatar	T5	T2	T6	T4	T3	T4	T4	T7	T6	-	1	1
18	🇭🇰 Hong Kong	T5	T2	T8	T4	T4	T5	T4	T6	T5	-	1	-
19	🇦🇺 Australia	T3	T3	T4	T4	T2	T3	T3	T4	T4	-	1	4
19	🇮🇹 Italy	T3	T4	T3	T7	T4	T7	T6	T6	T5	-	-	2

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, February 2026

Figure 2 identifies the frontier nations across each of the nine capability domains. The 2026 prototype assessment uses synthetic simulation to develop a capability rating for each nation across approximately 200 discrete capabilities. These capability ratings are aggregated into capability group scores. Using Pareto domination analysis, countries are then assigned to tiers within each domain, with Tier 1 (the frontier) identifying nations that are not dominated by any peer in that specific capability area.

Figure 1. Top 20 Nations: 2026 Hard Capability Ratings

Regional Analysis

East Asia and the Pacific

East Asia and the Pacific has long been the world's most contested theatre of hard power. From the imperial rivalries of the 19th century through the Pacific War to today's great-power competition over semiconductors, maritime routes and nuclear deterrence, the region's strategic weight is unmatched outside Europe and North America. It is home to the world's largest standing armies, its most advanced shipbuilding industries and, increasingly, the manufacturing base that underpins global technology supply chains. The Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula remain among the most heavily militarised flashpoints on earth.

The GINC hard capability rankings confirm the region's standing at the global frontier. China shares the second-highest hard rank globally, holding T1 positions in both Critical Technology and Strategic Infrastructure, while Japan and South Korea each hold T1 in Strategic Infrastructure and sit tied at global rank 7. Singapore, despite its small territorial footprint, reaches rank 9 on the strength of its world-class infrastructure. Australia rounds out the region's top tier at rank 19. Beyond these leaders, however, capability falls away sharply: the Pacific island states and several Southeast Asian nations occupy the lower half of the global table, reflecting the vast developmental gulf between the region's industrial powers and its smaller economies.

Figure X. East Asia and Pacific: 2026 Hard Capability Ratings

Hard Capability			Hard Capability			Soft Capability			Econ Capability			Frontiers
R#	G#	Nation	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI	T1	T2	T3
1	2	🇨🇳 China	T1	T1	T2	T3	T1	T7	T2	T1	T2	4	3	1
2	7	🇯🇵 Japan	T2	T1	T3	T4	T1	T3	T2	T1	T2	3	3	2
2	7	🇰🇷 South Korea	T2	T1	T3	T2	T1	T2	T3	T1	T2	3	4	2
4	9	🇸🇬 Singapore	T3	T1	T3	T1	T1	T1	T1	T1	T1	7	-	2
5	18	🇭🇰 Hong Kong	T5	T2	T8	T4	T4	T5	T4	T6	T5	-	1	-
6	19	🇦🇺 Australia	T3	T3	T4	T4	T2	T3	T3	T4	T4	-	1	4
7	31	🇹🇼 Taiwan	T4	T4	T5	T4	T4	T4	T5	T3	T3	-	-	2
8	35	🇳🇿 New Zealand	T5	T4	T6	T5	T3	T2	T4	T5	T5	-	1	1
9	43	🇲🇾 Malaysia	T7	T4	T7	T7	T6	T9	T5	T6	T7	-	-	-
10	51	🇬🇺 Guam	T7	T6	T5	T11	T9	T9	T13	T17	T16	-	-	-
10	51	🇲🇵 N. Mariana Islands	T6	T7	T5	T10	T9	T9	T9	T9	T11	-	-	-
12	58	🇹🇭 Thailand	T7	T5	T8	T8	T8	T12	T6	T10	T8	-	-	-
13	66	🇧🇳 Brunei	T13	T5	T10	T8	T9	T8	T9	T17	T15	-	-	-
14	72	🇻🇳 Vietnam	T8	T6	T7	T9	T7	T10	T7	T11	T8	-	-	-
15	75	🇲🇴 Macao	T10	T6	T7	T10	T11	T10	T11	T11	T14	-	-	-
15	75	🇹🇻 Tuvalu	T7	T10	T6	T13	T11	T9	T6	T6	T8	-	-	-
17	92	🇮🇩 Indonesia	T7	T7	T7	T11	T6	T10	T6	T11	T8	-	-	-
18	98	🇳🇨 New Caledonia	T12	T7	T8	T12	T14	T12	T13	T16	T15	-	-	-
19	104	🇦🇸 American Samoa	T10	T11	T7	T18	T15	T14	T11	T8	T12	-	-	-
20	108	🇰🇵 North Korea	T11	T12	T7	T27	T19	T27	T22	T27	T25	-	-	-
21	114	🇵🇭 Philippines	T11	T9	T8	T12	T6	T13	T9	T15	T12	-	-	-
22	126	🇳🇷 Nauru	T13	T14	T8	T19	T14	T17	T9	T10	T12	-	-	-
23	128	🇲🇲 Myanmar	T15	T14	T8	T26	T20	T24	T20	T24	T21	-	-	-
24	154	🇼🇸 Samoa	T20	T15	T9	T20	T13	T15	T11	T12	T12	-	-	-
25	158	🇲🇳 Mongolia	T14	T11	T10	T17	T14	T15	T12	T17	T15	-	-	-
26	170	🇵🇫 French Polynesia	T15	T15	T10	T18	T14	T11	T9	T10	T12	-	-	-
27	188	🇰🇭 Cambodia	T16	T13	T11	T21	T15	T19	T14	T21	T15	-	-	-
28	189	🇫🇯 Fiji	T17	T13	T11	T21	T13	T17	T15	T21	T18	-	-	-
29	197	🇹🇴 Tonga	T18	T17	T11	T22	T14	T19	T14	T15	T15	-	-	-
30	199	🇻🇺 Vanuatu	T21	T19	T11	T22	T16	T19	T13	T14	T14	-	-	-
31	203	🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea	T18	T13	T12	T24	T19	T21	T18	T23	T19	-	-	-
32	207	🇹🇱 Timor-Leste	T21	T17	T12	T24	T18	T20	T16	T21	T18	-	-	-
33	208	🇰🇮 Kiribati	T22	T21	T12	T25	T18	T23	T18	T18	T18	-	-	-
33	208	🇵🇼 Palau	T22	T21	T12	T23	T17	T20	T19	T21	T19	-	-	-
35	210	🇲🇭 Marshall Islands	T22	T22	T12	T25	T18	T23	T15	T21	T20	-	-	-
36	211	🇱🇦 Laos	T17	T13	T13	T24	T18	T21	T19	T25	T18	-	-	-
37	214	🇸🇧 Solomon Islands	T15	T16	T14	T26	T18	T21	T21	T28	T24	-	-	-
38	215	🇫🇲 Micronesia	T23	T17	T14	T28	T20	T25	T20	T26	T23	-	-	-

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, February 2026

Europe and Central Asia

Europe's hard-power credentials are rooted in centuries of industrial innovation, imperial expansion and, more recently, collective defence through NATO. The region pioneered many of the technologies that define modern military and industrial capability, from precision engineering and aerospace to nuclear energy and advanced telecommunications. Since 1945, Western Europe has channelled much of that capacity into economic integration rather than unilateral force projection, but the return of large-scale conflict to the continent has refocused attention on strategic infrastructure, defence-industrial capacity and technological sovereignty.

The hard capability rankings place Europe firmly at the top of the global table. France and Germany share rank 2 and rank 4 respectively, each holding T1 in both Critical Technology and Strategic Infrastructure, while the Netherlands matches them at rank 4. Norway (rank 10), Sweden (rank 14) and Denmark and Finland (tied at rank 15) demonstrate the disproportionate hard-capability depth of the Nordic states. Switzerland, though ranked 12th on hard power alone, complements that position with the highest concentration of soft and economic T1 ratings of any nation. The region's breadth is equally notable: 58 nations are assessed, yet the top dozen European states account for a significant share of the world's frontier-tier hard capability, leaving Central Asian and Caucasus nations clustered in the lower tiers.

Figure X. Europe and Central Asia: 2026 Hard Capability Ratings

Hard Capability			Hard Capability			Soft Capability			Econ Capability			Frontiers
R#	G#	Nation	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI	T1	T2	T3
1	2	🇫🇷 France	T1	T1	T2	T4	T1	T5	T2	T3	T3	3	2	2
2	4	🇩🇪 Germany	T1	T1	T4	T4	T1	T4	T2	T2	T3	3	2	1
2	4	🇳🇱 Netherlands	T1	T1	T4	T3	T1	T2	T2	T2	T2	3	4	1
4	10	🇳🇴 Norway	T3	T1	T5	T2	T1	T1	T2	T4	T3	3	2	2
5	12	🇨🇭 Switzerland	T2	T2	T6	T1	T1	T1	T1	T1	T1	6	2	-
6	13	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	T2	T3	T3	T4	T1	T4	T2	T4	T4	1	2	2
7	14	🇸🇪 Sweden	T3	T2	T5	T2	T1	T1	T2	T1	T2	3	4	1
8	15	🇩🇰 Denmark	T4	T2	T6	T2	T2	T1	T3	T2	T2	1	5	1
8	15	🇫🇮 Finland	T4	T2	T6	T2	T2	T1	T4	T2	T3	1	4	1
10	19	🇮🇹 Italy	T3	T4	T3	T7	T4	T7	T6	T6	T5	-	-	2
11	21	🇧🇪 Belgium	T3	T3	T5	T5	T4	T5	T4	T3	T4	-	-	3
12	23	🇦🇹 Austria	T3	T3	T7	T3	T3	T4	T5	T4	T4	-	-	4
13	24	🇪🇸 Spain	T4	T3	T4	T6	T3	T6	T3	T5	T5	-	-	3
14	25	🇷🇺 Russia	T4	T5	T3	T9	T6	T11	T10	T9	T11	-	-	1
15	26	🇮🇪 Ireland	T4	T3	T9	T5	T2	T4	T5	T3	T4	-	1	2
16	27	🇪🇪 Estonia	T5	T3	T5	T1	T1	T1	T5	T2	T1	4	1	1
17	28	🇱🇺 Luxembourg	T5	T3	T7	T3	T3	T3	T5	T5	T5	-	-	4
18	29	🇮🇸 Iceland	T6	T3	T9	T4	T3	T4	T8	T6	T7	-	-	2
19	31	🇵🇱 Poland	T5	T4	T4	T7	T4	T8	T5	T5	T6	-	-	-
20	35	🇨🇿 Czechia	T5	T4	T6	T6	T4	T7	T6	T5	T5	-	-	-
20	35	🇵🇹 Portugal	T5	T4	T6	T6	T3	T5	T6	T5	T6	-	-	1
22	38	🇱🇹 Lithuania	T6	T4	T6	T6	T3	T5	T6	T5	T7	-	-	1
23	40	🇭🇺 Hungary	T6	T4	T7	T8	T5	T10	T6	T7	T7	-	-	-
23	40	🇸🇮 Slovenia	T6	T4	T7	T6	T5	T6	T6	T5	T5	-	-	-
25	44	🇸🇰 Slovakia	T7	T4	T8	T7	T6	T9	T7	T8	T7	-	-	-
26	47	🇱🇮 Liechtenstein	T7	T4	T10	T4	T5	T5	T8	T7	T9	-	-	-
27	48	🇹🇷 Türkiye	T5	T5	T5	T9	T6	T11	T7	T8	T9	-	-	-
28	49	🇷🇴 Romania	T6	T5	T5	T9	T6	T9	T6	T8	T8	-	-	-
28	49	🇬🇷 Greece	T6	T5	T5	T9	T5	T8	T7	T9	T7	-	-	-
30	51	🇫🇴 Faroe Islands	T6	T7	T5	T9	T9	T11	T8	T9	T11	-	-	-
31	55	🇦🇿 Azerbaijan	T11	T5	T6	T11	T8	T11	T7	T13	T8	-	-	-
32	56	🇭🇷 Croatia	T7	T5	T7	T8	T5	T8	T7	T9	T7	-	-	-
32	56	🇺🇦 Ukraine	T7	T7	T5	T13	T4	T13	T12	T14	T13	-	-	-
34	58	🇱🇻 Latvia	T8	T5	T7	T7	T5	T6	T7	T6	T8	-	-	-
35	62	🇲🇨 Monaco	T8	T5	T8	T6	T6	T7	T8	T10	T12	-	-	-
36	64	🇲🇹 Malta	T10	T5	T10	T7	T5	T9	T8	T8	T8	-	-	-
37	70	🇧🇬 Bulgaria	T8	T6	T6	T10	T9	T11	T8	T10	T9	-	-	-
38	73	🇰🇿 Kazakhstan	T9	T6	T7	T10	T8	T11	T7	T12	T10	-	-	-
39	80	🇧🇾 Belarus	T9	T8	T6	T11	T14	T19	T16	T15	T15	-	-	-
40	83	🇸🇲 San Marino	T11	T6	T8	T10	T8	T9	T11	T14	T14	-	-	-
41	85	🇬🇪 Georgia	T12	T8	T6	T11	T10	T10	T8	T8	T9	-	-	-
42	87	🇮🇲 Isle of Man	T9	T9	T6	T12	T10	T11	T7	T8	T9	-	-	-
42	87	🇨🇾 Cyprus	T9	T6	T9	T7	T6	T8	T9	T11	T9	-	-	-
44	91	🇲🇩 Moldova	T14	T12	T6	T13	T11	T13	T9	T9	T12	-	-	-
45	95	🇷🇸 Serbia	T9	T7	T7	T9	T8	T14	T8	T12	T10	-	-	-
46	104	🇯🇪 Channel Islands	T10	T7	T11	T9	T7	T7	T7	T8	T10	-	-	-
47	106	🇦🇩 Andorra	T12	T7	T10	T8	T7	T9	T11	T17	T16	-	-	-
48	111	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	T11	T8	T8	T15	T12	T14	T10	T14	T12	-	-	-
49	113	🇦🇲 Armenia	T9	T10	T8	T12	T8	T14	T12	T6	T12	-	-	-
50	119	🇲🇪 Montenegro	T13	T11	T8	T10	T12	T10	T8	T6	T7	-	-	-
51	137	🇹🇲 Turkmenistan	T15	T9	T10	T25	T16	T23	T18	T23	T20	-	-	-
52	139	🇲🇰 North Macedonia	T12	T11	T9	T15	T11	T12	T11	T14	T12	-	-	-
53	160	🇦🇱 Albania	T13	T12	T10	T18	T13	T15	T12	T18	T14	-	-	-
54	168	🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan	T15	T14	T10	T22	T15	T18	T16	T22	T17	-	-	-
55	171	🇹🇯 Tajikistan	T16	T15	T10	T25	T17	T22	T19	T25	T21	-	-	-
56	184	🇬🇱 Greenland	T12	T13	T11	T20	T16	T15	T13	T17	T16	-	-	-
56	184	🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina	T13	T12	T11	T19	T15	T18	T15	T20	T16	-	-	-
58	202	🇽🇰 Kosovo	T12	T15	T13	T22	T14	T16	T15	T22	T17	-	-	-

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, February 2026

Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and the Caribbean has historically occupied a secondary position in global hard-power competition. Geographic distance from the principal theatres of great-power rivalry, combined with a post-independence tradition of regional non-intervention and, for much of the 20th century, reliance on the United States as a security guarantor, meant that few states developed large-scale indigenous defence industries or advanced technology sectors. Where hard capability does exist, it tends to be concentrated in a small number of the region's larger economies, while the Caribbean and Central American states possess minimal capacity in critical technology, strategic infrastructure or national security.

The GINC hard capability data confirms this pattern. Chile leads the region at global hard rank 38, a position built on relatively strong strategic infrastructure and a stable institutional environment, though it holds no T1 in any domain. Mexico ties for second regionally at rank 58, alongside the Turks and Caicos Islands, followed by Uruguay (rank 63) and Brazil (rank 67). Notably, no nation in the entire region achieves a T1 rating in any hard capability column, and not a single T1 frontier is recorded across all 41 assessed entities. Brazil, despite being the region's largest economy and a significant conventional military power, sits at only rank 67, reflecting the gap between population scale and frontier-tier technological and infrastructure capability. The region's hard-power profile is one of broad mid-tier performance with no standout global leader.

Figure X. Latin America and Caribbean: 2026 Hard Capability Ratings

Hard Capability			Hard Capability			Soft Capability			Econ Capability			Frontiers
R#	G#	Nation	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI	T1	T2	T3
1	38	🇨🇱 Chile	T6	T4	T6	T7	T5	T7	T5	T6	T6	-	-	-
2	58	🇲🇽 Mexico	T7	T5	T8	T10	T4	T9	T6	T9	T7	-	-	-
2	58	🇹🇨 Turks and Caicos Islands	T7	T8	T5	T11	T7	T12	T7	T7	T7	-	-	-
4	63	🇺🇾 Uruguay	T9	T5	T9	T6	T4	T6	T9	T10	T9	-	-	-
5	67	🇧🇷 Brazil	T6	T6	T6	T10	T8	T11	T7	T9	T10	-	-	-
6	69	🇲🇫 Saint Martin	T6	T7	T6	T12	T8	T13	T9	T11	T11	-	-	-
7	73	🇳🇮 Nicaragua	T6	T9	T7	T13	T11	T16	T14	T14	T14	-	-	-
8	78	🇵🇪 Peru	T11	T7	T6	T13	T10	T12	T8	T14	T10	-	-	-
9	79	🇨🇺 Cuba	T6	T8	T8	T9	T13	T17	T19	T22	T17	-	-	-
10	81	🇵🇦 Panama	T10	T6	T8	T13	T8	T10	T10	T14	T9	-	-	-
10	81	🇨🇷 Costa Rica	T10	T6	T8	T7	T6	T8	T7	T7	T8	-	-	-
12	85	🇹🇹 Trinidad & Tobago	T12	T6	T8	T12	T12	T12	T11	T10	T11	-	-	-
13	93	🇦🇷 Argentina	T7	T8	T7	T11	T8	T11	T12	T13	T12	-	-	-
13	93	🇵🇷 Puerto Rico	T8	T7	T7	T10	T6	T8	T7	T7	T8	-	-	-
15	96	🇨🇴 Colombia	T10	T7	T7	T10	T7	T11	T7	T8	T9	-	-	-
16	103	🇬🇩 Grenada	T10	T10	T7	T14	T11	T16	T10	T10	T12	-	-	-
17	107	🇰🇾 Cayman Islands	T11	T7	T11	T10	T8	T8	T10	T18	T14	-	-	-
18	109	🇧🇧 Barbados	T14	T7	T11	T9	T7	T10	T12	T17	T15	-	-	-
19	110	🇰🇳 St Kitts & Nevis	T12	T12	T7	T17	T14	T18	T13	T16	T15	-	-	-
20	115	🇩🇴 Dominican Rep.	T12	T8	T9	T16	T8	T14	T12	T16	T13	-	-	-
21	118	🇪🇨 Ecuador	T12	T10	T8	T15	T12	T15	T11	T16	T13	-	-	-
22	119	🇯🇲 Jamaica	T13	T8	T11	T14	T5	T11	T11	T16	T13	-	-	-
23	123	🇻🇪 Venezuela	T14	T12	T8	T25	T15	T24	T18	T23	T21	-	-	-
24	124	🇦🇼 Aruba	T15	T8	T12	T11	T8	T10	T13	T21	T17	-	-	-
25	126	🇻🇮 US Virgin Islands	T13	T14	T8	T14	T13	T10	T8	T7	T10	-	-	-
26	128	🇸🇷 Suriname	T15	T14	T8	T18	T14	T15	T11	T12	T13	-	-	-
27	130	🇻🇨 St Vincent & Grenadines	T16	T16	T8	T18	T13	T11	T8	T7	T10	-	-	-
28	142	🇨🇼 Curaçao	T14	T12	T9	T14	T11	T14	T8	T10	T11	-	-	-
29	145	🇸🇻 El Salvador	T15	T13	T9	T20	T13	T18	T15	T18	T15	-	-	-
30	151	🇱🇨 St Lucia	T18	T15	T9	T17	T13	T16	T10	T8	T9	-	-	-
31	161	🇬🇹 Guatemala	T14	T12	T10	T21	T14	T18	T16	T19	T15	-	-	-
32	162	🇭🇳 Honduras	T15	T12	T10	T20	T15	T20	T16	T18	T15	-	-	-
33	165	🇧🇸 Bahamas	T14	T13	T10	T19	T11	T11	T12	T16	T15	-	-	-
34	172	🇸🇽 Sint Maarten	T17	T15	T10	T21	T16	T18	T15	T21	T18	-	-	-
35	174	🇧🇿 Belize	T19	T15	T10	T23	T15	T19	T18	T22	T19	-	-	-
36	182	🇧🇴 Bolivia	T15	T11	T11	T20	T15	T17	T15	T21	T19	-	-	-
36	182	🇵🇾 Paraguay	T15	T11	T11	T20	T16	T17	T15	T21	T17	-	-	-
38	186	🇬🇾 Guyana	T16	T12	T11	T21	T15	T17	T14	T22	T15	-	-	-
39	195	🇦🇬 Antigua & Barbuda	T19	T16	T11	T22	T14	T19	T15	T20	T18	-	-	-
40	199	🇭🇹 Haiti	T21	T19	T11	T24	T16	T21	T15	T13	T15	-	-	-
41	205	🇩🇲 Dominica	T20	T16	T12	T21	T15	T17	T11	T18	T14	-	-	-

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, February 2026

Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa sits at the crossroads of three continents, and its strategic significance has rarely been in doubt. Control of the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves, command of vital maritime chokepoints at Suez, Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, and proximity to both European and South Asian theatres have made the region a permanent focus of global hard-power competition. Several states have used resource wealth to invest heavily in defence procurement and strategic infrastructure, while others, notably Israel and Iran, have developed indigenous technology and defence-industrial bases that punch well above their demographic weight.

Israel leads the region at global hard rank 6, holding a T1 position in Strategic Infrastructure alongside a T1 in Production & Innovation, making it the only MENA nation to reach the global frontier in a hard capability domain. The UAE follows at rank 11, also T1 in Strategic Infrastructure, reflecting decades of deliberate investment in logistics, connectivity and defence. Qatar (rank 17) and Kuwait (rank 30) round out the Gulf's upper tier, though their hard capability is concentrated in infrastructure rather than technology or national security. Below the Gulf states and Israel, capability drops off considerably: conflict-affected states such as Syria (rank 131), Yemen (rank 179) and Iraq (rank 112) occupy the lower reaches, illustrating how prolonged instability erodes even the hard-power advantages that geography and resources might otherwise confer.

Figure X. Middle East and North Africa: 2026 Hard Capability Ratings

Hard Capability			Hard Capability			Soft Capability			Econ Capability			Frontiers
R#	G#	Nation	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI	T1	T2	T3
1	6	🇮🇱 Israel	T2	T1	T2	T3	T2	T3	T4	T1	T3	2	3	3
2	11	🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates	T4	T1	T4	T4	T2	T2	T2	T3	T2	1	4	1
3	17	🇶🇦 Qatar	T5	T2	T6	T4	T3	T4	T4	T7	T6	-	1	1
4	30	🇰🇼 Kuwait	T9	T3	T8	T9	T8	T11	T6	T20	T15	-	-	1
5	33	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	T5	T4	T5	T8	T5	T9	T3	T6	T7	-	-	1
6	42	🇮🇷 Iran	T6	T8	T4	T15	T11	T19	T16	T13	T15	-	-	-
7	45	🇧🇭 Bahrain	T9	T4	T7	T7	T9	T9	T6	T7	T9	-	-	-
7	45	🇴🇲 Oman	T9	T4	T7	T9	T7	T9	T7	T13	T10	-	-	-
9	54	🇲🇦 Morocco	T10	T5	T6	T10	T4	T9	T6	T7	T6	-	-	-
10	71	🇪🇬 Egypt	T9	T6	T6	T12	T6	T13	T7	T13	T11	-	-	-
11	75	🇩🇿 Algeria	T10	T7	T6	T18	T12	T16	T14	T19	T13	-	-	-
12	83	🇯🇴 Jordan	T11	T6	T8	T10	T7	T11	T11	T15	T13	-	-	-
13	112	🇮🇶 Iraq	T14	T8	T8	T21	T15	T18	T16	T24	T17	-	-	-
14	131	🇸🇾 Syria	T18	T16	T8	T27	T19	T25	T21	T25	T22	-	-	-
15	135	🇹🇳 Tunisia	T10	T9	T9	T12	T11	T17	T13	T14	T13	-	-	-
16	144	🇱🇾 Libya	T17	T12	T9	T26	T21	T26	T18	T26	T21	-	-	-
17	167	🇱🇧 Lebanon	T14	T14	T10	T21	T13	T21	T20	T22	T20	-	-	-
18	175	🇵🇸 Palestine	T16	T16	T10	T17	T14	T17	T9	T12	T12	-	-	-
19	179	🇾🇪 Yemen	T21	T18	T10	T31	T22	T27	T20	T25	T23	-	-	-
20	201	🇩🇯 Djibouti	T13	T14	T12	T25	T18	T21	T20	T23	T14	-	-	-

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, February 2026

South Asia

South Asia is home to nearly a quarter of the world's population and two nuclear-armed states whose rivalry has defined the region's security architecture for more than seven decades. India's sheer scale, its space programme, its expanding defence-industrial base and its growing role in global technology supply chains make it the region's dominant hard-power actor by a wide margin. Pakistan's nuclear capability and large conventional forces ensure it remains a significant military presence, while smaller states in the region possess limited hard-power capacity and have historically relied on external partnerships for security guarantees.

The hard capability rankings reflect this concentration. India is the region's clear leader, with its strongest positions in Critical Technology and National Security, placing it comfortably in the upper tier of the global table. Pakistan follows at a considerable distance, with modest but meaningful capability across all three hard domains. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal trail further behind, their hard-power profiles constrained by smaller economies and limited defence-industrial investment. No South Asian nation holds a T1 position in any hard capability domain, underscoring the region's gap relative to East Asia, Europe and North America despite India's rising trajectory.

Figure X. South Asia: 2026 Hard Capability Ratings

Hard Capability			Hard Capability			Soft Capability			Econ Capability			Frontiers
R#	G#	Nation	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI	T1	T2	T3
1	33	🇮🇳 India	T5	T5	T4	T9	T5	T11	T6	T7	T8	-	-	-
2	65	🇵🇰 Pakistan	T11	T10	T5	T20	T13	T18	T12	T18	T13	-	-	-
3	117	🇧🇩 Bangladesh	T11	T10	T8	T13	T9	T15	T11	T16	T13	-	-	-
4	138	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	T11	T11	T9	T14	T12	T16	T14	T17	T14	-	-	-
5	145	🇳🇵 Nepal	T15	T13	T9	T18	T14	T17	T13	T17	T17	-	-	-
6	164	🇧🇹 Bhutan	T18	T12	T10	T20	T9	T14	T12	T15	T15	-	-	-
7	192	🇲🇻 Maldives	T16	T14	T11	T15	T15	T18	T15	T22	T19	-	-	-
8	216	🇦🇫 Afghanistan	T21	T19	T14	T30	T22	T26	T21	T27	T25	-	-	-

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, February 2026

Sub Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa's relationship with hard power has been shaped more by external intervention than by indigenous industrial capacity. Colonial-era extraction built infrastructure designed to move resources outward rather than to develop domestic capability, and the Cold War saw the continent's strategic geography leveraged by competing superpowers without lasting investment in local technology or defence industries. In the decades since independence, a handful of states have built meaningful military and industrial foundations, but the region as a whole remains the most under-resourced in critical technology, strategic infrastructure and national security.

The GINC hard capability data bears this out starkly. South Africa leads the region at global hard rank 48, the only Sub-Saharan nation in the upper quartile, with its strongest showing in National Security (T4). Nigeria follows at rank 66, drawing on its population scale and energy resources but held back by infrastructure and governance deficits. Beyond these two, capability thins rapidly: no Sub-Saharan nation holds a T1 position in any hard capability domain, and the majority of the region's 48 assessed nations sit at T10 or below across all three hard columns. The continent's hard-power gap remains one of the defining structural features of the global capability landscape.

Figure X. Sub Saharan Africa: 2026 Hard Capability Ratings

Hard Capability			Hard Capability			Soft Capability			Econ Capability			Frontiers
R#	G#	Nation	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI	T1	T2	T3
1	67	🇿🇦 South Africa	T6	T6	T6	T9	T7	T9	T7	T9	T9	-	-	-
2	89	🇳🇬 Nigeria	T12	T10	T6	T14	T7	T13	T10	T14	T12	-	-	-
3	90	🇲🇺 Mauritius	T13	T6	T10	T9	T6	T8	T6	T10	T8	-	-	-
4	98	🇰🇪 Kenya	T12	T7	T8	T11	T7	T12	T9	T13	T11	-	-	-
5	100	🇷🇼 Rwanda	T14	T7	T8	T10	T6	T7	T10	T13	T12	-	-	-
6	101	🇧🇼 Botswana	T14	T7	T9	T11	T6	T8	T7	T14	T13	-	-	-
6	101	🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire	T14	T7	T9	T17	T11	T14	T9	T15	T12	-	-	-
8	116	🇬🇭 Ghana	T13	T9	T8	T14	T8	T10	T10	T14	T12	-	-	-
9	119	🇸🇳 Senegal	T13	T11	T8	T16	T8	T13	T10	T16	T13	-	-	-
10	122	🇲🇷 Mauritania	T13	T12	T8	T22	T14	T16	T11	T14	T13	-	-	-
11	125	🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo	T18	T12	T8	T20	T14	T11	T7	T7	T9	-	-	-
12	132	🇪🇷 Eritrea	T20	T16	T8	T21	T15	T14	T7	T7	T10	-	-	-
13	133	🇰🇲 Comoros	T17	T19	T8	T22	T13	T13	T9	T8	T8	-	-	-
14	134	🇹🇩 Chad	T22	T19	T8	T24	T18	T22	T19	T19	T16	-	-	-
15	136	🇳🇦 Namibia	T13	T10	T9	T17	T14	T11	T12	T15	T14	-	-	-
16	140	🇦🇴 Angola	T14	T11	T9	T23	T14	T18	T13	T20	T15	-	-	-
17	141	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	T12	T12	T9	T19	T13	T17	T16	T19	T14	-	-	-
18	143	🇿🇲 Zambia	T15	T9	T12	T20	T15	T16	T11	T18	T14	-	-	-
19	145	🇨🇲 Cameroon	T15	T13	T9	T20	T15	T18	T13	T17	T14	-	-	-
19	145	🇺🇬 Uganda	T15	T13	T9	T17	T13	T16	T12	T18	T14	-	-	-
21	149	🇲🇬 Madagascar	T17	T15	T9	T21	T15	T18	T12	T15	T14	-	-	-
21	149	🏳️ Sudan	T17	T15	T9	T26	T19	T24	T18	T23	T20	-	-	-
23	151	🇨🇩 DR Congo	T18	T15	T9	T24	T17	T20	T15	T19	T16	-	-	-
24	153	🇬🇳 Guinea	T19	T15	T9	T20	T15	T13	T12	T8	T13	-	-	-
25	155	🇱🇸 Lesotho	T19	T16	T9	T21	T15	T18	T12	T14	T13	-	-	-
25	155	🇸🇱 Sierra Leone	T19	T16	T9	T24	T16	T19	T12	T13	T13	-	-	-
27	157	🇸🇸 South Sudan	T24	T20	T9	T30	T20	T22	T16	T17	T15	-	-	-
28	158	🇹🇿 Tanzania	T14	T11	T10	T19	T12	T17	T13	T19	T14	-	-	-
29	162	🇬🇦 Gabon	T15	T12	T10	T22	T17	T19	T13	T18	T17	-	-	-
30	165	🇸🇨 Seychelles	T14	T13	T10	T11	T13	T12	T14	T18	T17	-	-	-
31	169	🇹🇬 Togo	T17	T14	T10	T24	T17	T19	T14	T19	T15	-	-	-
32	172	🇲🇼 Malawi	T17	T15	T10	T23	T17	T19	T16	T20	T18	-	-	-
33	176	🇸🇴 Somalia	T21	T17	T10	T27	T16	T22	T14	T17	T18	-	-	-
34	177	🇬🇲 Gambia	T19	T18	T10	T21	T16	T17	T13	T15	T14	-	-	-
35	178	🇳🇪 Niger	T20	T18	T10	T23	T17	T20	T12	T12	T13	-	-	-
36	180	🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau	T22	T20	T10	T29	T19	T21	T12	T18	T17	-	-	-
37	181	🇨🇫 Central African Rep.	T23	T20	T10	T25	T16	T12	T6	T14	T12	-	-	-
38	186	🇲🇿 Mozambique	T16	T12	T11	T24	T16	T18	T15	T22	T15	-	-	-
39	190	🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea	T19	T13	T11	T25	T18	T22	T17	T23	T19	-	-	-
40	191	🇿🇼 Zimbabwe	T15	T14	T11	T22	T15	T20	T16	T21	T16	-	-	-
41	193	🇸🇿 Eswatini	T16	T15	T11	T22	T17	T20	T17	T21	T16	-	-	-
42	194	🇨🇻 Cabo Verde	T17	T15	T11	T18	T7	T10	T14	T18	T16	-	-	-
43	195	🇲🇱 Mali	T19	T16	T11	T25	T18	T22	T14	T22	T18	-	-	-
44	198	🇱🇷 Liberia	T20	T17	T11	T26	T18	T21	T17	T24	T19	-	-	-
45	204	🇧🇯 Benin	T18	T14	T12	T23	T16	T19	T14	T21	T16	-	-	-
46	206	🇧🇫 Burkina Faso	T19	T17	T12	T25	T19	T24	T14	T23	T20	-	-	-
47	212	🇧🇮 Burundi	T21	T19	T13	T27	T21	T24	T20	T24	T20	-	-	-
48	213	🇸🇹 São Tomé & Príncipe	T22	T20	T13	T27	T19	T22	T19	T25	T22	-	-	-