GINC National Capability Ratings Rubric
This rating system evaluates a nation’s overall strategic capability in areas like defense, technology, and artificial intelligence. It reflects how prepared and competitive a nation is on the global stage, highlighting strengths, vulnerabilities, and potential for growth.
Short Description
A. Leading Capability.
B.
C. Emerging Capability.
D. Nil. No material identifiable or effective capability
Full System
To comprehensively assess a nation’s capabilities in any critical technology domain (e.g. AI, semiconductors, biotech, quantum, space, energy, advanced materials), we evaluate several key factors:
Indigenous R&D Strength: The scale and quality of domestic research and innovation (publications, patents, R&D investment, etc.). In general, a nation’s innovative capacity is driven by both its R&D investments and the strength of its skilled workforce . High levels of indigenous R&D indicate the nation is contributing new knowledge rather than just consuming it.
Talent and Education Pipeline: Availability of skilled human capital – scientists, engineers, and technicians – and the quality of education and training in relevant fields. A robust STEM education system and talent pool are crucial for sustaining innovation . Retention and attraction of expertise (vs. brain drain) are also considered.
Domestic Development vs. Foreign Acquisition: The extent to which the technology is developed and produced domestically as opposed to acquired via imports, licensing, joint ventures, or foreign direct investment. Countries with little to no own R&D must rely heavily on foreign technology , whereas those with mature innovation ecosystems find less need to depend on external sources . Indigenous development confers greater self-sufficiency and security.
Ecosystem Maturity & Self-Sufficiency: The overall development of the technology’s ecosystem – including industrial base, infrastructure, supply chains, and supporting institutions. This measures how completely the country can sustain the technology lifecycle (from research through production to deployment) on its own. A mature ecosystem means domestic companies, infrastructure, and supply chains can support the technology with minimal external dependence. (Notably, critical technologies have dual-use implications – they drive economic innovation and also underpin military/national security capabilities . Thus, a truly advanced ecosystem supports both civilian industries and military applications.)
Scoring
Scoring: We use a 0 to 100 scale, in 10-point increments, to rate capability from nonexistent (0) to world-leading (90). Below is the rubric with clearly defined levels and example indicators for each. This framework is general-purpose and meant to be applicable across countries and technologies, accounting for both civilian and military use cases at each level.
Usage: This rubric can be applied consistently across different countries and technologies. For each critical technology domain, analysts can assess a nation’s status by checking which level’s indicators best match its R&D output, talent pool, domestic vs. foreign development balance, ecosystem maturity, and civil/military integration. The result is a score (in 0–90) that allows comparison across nations or tracking progress over time. This structured approach ensures that both civilian capabilities (like industry and academia) and military applications (for national security) are accounted for at every level of technological development , providing a holistic view of a country’s native technological strength.
0 No Capability
0 No Capability: R&D: Essentially no domestic research or development activity in this technology; the country contributes nothing to innovation in the field . No publications, patents, or R&D programs exist. Talent: No significant pool of local experts or specialized education. Virtually no engineers or researchers trained in this domain (any few experts are likely expatriates or trained abroad). Development vs. Acquisition: Neither develops the technology at home nor obtains it from abroad. There is zero indigenous production, and even foreign technology is not present in any meaningful way. Ecosystem: No infrastructure or industry related to the technology. No companies, research centers, or supply chain elements exist domestically. Civilian/Military Use: The technology is absent from both civilian life and military inventories. (Example: a country with no space program and no satellite usage would score 0 in space tech.)
10 Very Limited Capability:
R&D: Minimal indigenous R&D. There may be a handful of research initiatives or a small lab beginning work in this area, but output is negligible. Any progress is in very early, exploratory stages. Talent: A very small number of individuals have relevant expertise. The education pipeline is nascent – e.g. perhaps a new university program has started – but overall skill availability is extremely limited. The country depends on foreign training for most advanced skills. Development vs. Acquisition: Almost entirely reliant on foreign technology. The nation might import basic products or services (or receive aid) to get rudimentary capability. Little to no domestic innovation; any capability comes from purchasing or small-scale licensing of older tech. Ecosystem: Largely undeveloped. Infrastructure and industry for this tech are practically non-existent. Maybe one or two startups or a pilot project exist, often with foreign support. No domestic supply chain (all key equipment is imported). Civilian/Military Use: Very limited usage in both civilian and military spheres. For instance, a civilian pilot program or a few imported devices might exist, but the technology is not widely applied. The military, if at all interested, could have at most one or two imported systems for evaluation. Overall, the tech is present only in a token manner and not integrated into broader national capabilities.
20 Limited Capability (Emerging):
R&D: Some emerging domestic R&D efforts. The country has initiated research programs in the technology with modest results. Perhaps a research institute or a university lab is actively working on it, producing occasional publications. The scale remains small, but there is a growing recognition of the tech’s importance. Talent: A slowly growing talent base. The educational system is beginning to offer courses or degrees in this field. A few dozen to hundreds of professionals have relevant training. The country may be sending students abroad to build expertise, or inviting foreign experts to train locals. Development vs. Acquisition: Still heavily reliant on foreign sources for practical needs. The nation likely imports most technology (equipment, software, etc.) for any real deployment. However, early indigenous projects exist – e.g. a prototype or locally adapted version of a foreign technology. The balance is tilted towards acquisition, but there’s an intent to increase domestic development. (At this stage, foreign tech and know-how often serve as a crutch while local capability tries to catch up .) Ecosystem: In the early stages of ecosystem formation. A few domestic companies or government initiatives have started in this domain. Some basic infrastructure is in place (for example, a small fabrication facility, a testing lab, or a startup incubator), often established with foreign assistance or off-the-shelf equipment. The supply chain is mostly international – critical components or materials are imported due to lack of local suppliers. Civilian/Military Use: The technology sees limited use in both arenas. In civilian sectors, there may be pilot projects or niche applications (often using imported tech) – e.g. a small biotech firm producing a simple test kit, or a trial of AI in one industry. The military might be exploring the tech via a small-scale program or by purchasing a few units from abroad (for example, buying a handful of drones or an off-the-shelf software package). Overall, the tech is recognized as important and some initial adoption occurs, but it is far from widespread or strategically significant yet.
30 Moderate Capability (Average):
R&D: A moderate level of domestic R&D is ongoing. The country has a sustained research presence – universities and labs publish findings regularly, though mostly incremental improvements or adaptations of known technologies. The country may have a few patents in the field and participates in international research collaborations. This is roughly an average global level of R&D activity (not a leader, but not negligible). Talent: A fair talent pipeline exists. The nation produces graduates and trained professionals in this technology at a steady rate. There is a community of practitioners (scientists, engineers) sufficient to staff local industry and research, though top-tier experts may still be relatively few. Some brain drain might occur (talent leaving for higher-paying jobs abroad), but a core base remains. Development vs. Acquisition: Capability is mixed – partially native, partially foreign-dependent. The country can develop and even produce certain products or subsystems domestically, especially those of low-to-medium complexity. However, it still relies on imports or licensing for more advanced or high-performance elements. For example, a nation at this level might assemble technology locally and even design some components, but import key high-tech parts (chips, materials, etc.) that it cannot make itself. It can utilize the tech effectively, but often the cutting-edge pieces are foreign . Ecosystem: A developing ecosystem is in place. There are several domestic companies active in the field and perhaps some government or private sector investment driving growth. Infrastructure is sufficient for moderate production or deployment – e.g. there might be one or two fabrication plants, testing facilities, or data centers, etc., that enable indigenous work. However, the ecosystem isn’t comprehensive: critical supply chain links or advanced tooling might not exist domestically, meaning the country is not self-sufficient if international supply is disrupted. Civilian/Military Use: The technology is partially integrated into the country’s economy and defense. In civilian life, industries are adopting the tech in standard ways (for instance, factories using mid-level industrial robots, or telecom companies deploying imported 5G equipment). Consumers have access to related products (almost certainly some of which are imported). The military has begun regular use of the technology: for example, fielding a few systems that use this tech (some possibly domestically assembled). That said, the most advanced or sensitive applications may still be procured from foreign suppliers. This level corresponds to a nation that has embraced the technology to an average extent – it is neither lagging nor leading, capable of using the tech but not dominating it.
40 Good Capability (Externally Sourced):
R&D: Limited indigenous R&D but high adoption. The country itself is not innovating at the forefront – it produces little original research or IP in this domain – yet it has managed to attain a good level of technology usage by leveraging external innovation. Domestic research may exist, but it’s minor and not the reason for the country’s capability at this level. Talent: The domestic workforce is capable of operating and maintaining advanced tech, even if they didn’t invent it. Technical education is geared towards applied skills (to use the tech) more than towards research. The country might have trained technicians and engineers who can implement or repair the systems acquired from abroad. Truly elite innovators are still mostly absent or imported. Development vs. Acquisition: The nation’s considerable capability is almost entirely acquired through purchases, licensing, or partnerships. It imports state-of-the-art equipment and know-how from leading countries and integrates them effectively. In other words, it has modern technology without a native base. For example, a country might buy advanced fighter jets or semiconductor fabs from abroad and operate them successfully, but it cannot design or produce such systems itself. This yields good short-term capability, but with a high dependence on external sources for updates and upkeep. (If those foreign ties were cut, the capability would quickly deteriorate.) Ecosystem: There may be significant tech infrastructure and even local industry activity, but it is heavily foreign-dependent. Perhaps foreign firms have set up manufacturing plants or R&D centers in the country, or joint ventures produce technology locally using foreign designs. The supply chain is international: core components, raw materials, or software are imported. The country might serve as an assembly hub or a major customer in global supply chains, but it doesn’t control critical nodes. Civilian/Military Use: High utilization via import. Both civilian sectors and the military might enjoy access to fairly advanced technology at this level. For instance, the general population might use modern gadgets or services (all made by foreign companies), and the military could possess some top-tier hardware bought from allies. However, because these capabilities aren’t supported indigenously, the country lacks true technological sovereignty – it must rely on external providers and partners for both upkeep and any future advancements. (One could think of a wealthy nation that buys the latest tech and uses it well, but has no domestic innovation in that area – it scores high on end-use but not on native capability.)
50 Average Native Capability: R&D: A solid domestic R&D base exists. The country can innovate at least at an intermediate level, generating a steady stream of research and some original developments. R&D investment is healthy (on par with mid-tier tech nations) and geared towards supporting domestic industry. While not on the cutting edge globally, the research community can solve local problems and occasionally contribute notable innovations. Talent: A reliable talent pipeline fuels this capability. Universities and technical institutes produce a sufficient number of qualified graduates in the field. The workforce has the expertise to not just use but also develop and adapt the technology. Some top talent still goes abroad for higher opportunities, but many stay, and the country can even attract regional talent due to its growing industry reputation. Development vs. Acquisition: The nation can develop and produce the technology to meet a large portion of its own needs. It has a core of indigenous companies or government programs making the technology (or its key parts) domestically. However, it likely still imports certain advanced components or tools that are not feasible or cost-effective to make in-country. There is a balance: for mainstream applications, domestic products are available, but for cutting-edge performance or efficiency, the country might rely on foreign tech. (For example, a country at 50 in semiconductors might produce mainstream chips and design its own simpler processors, but still import the latest high-end chips or manufacturing equipment.) Ecosystem: A moderately mature ecosystem is in place. Many elements of the infrastructure and supply chain are domestic. There are established firms covering various parts of the value chain, and facilities (factories, labs, testing sites) to support production. Nonetheless, some gaps remain at the high end. The country might still depend on external sources for the most advanced manufacturing equipment or specific rare materials. Complete self-sufficiency isn’t achieved – indeed, in complex global industries, no country is entirely self-sufficient at this point  – but the ecosystem can sustain routine development and even limited export of the technology. Civilian/Military Use: Broad domestic utilization. In the civilian economy, locally made products or services using this tech are available and meet most internal market needs (with foreign products supplementing the very high end). The technology contributes to economic growth and productivity. In the military domain, the country fields some indigenous systems based on this technology – for example, domestically built equipment or software is in service. However, for a few cutting-edge capabilities, the military may still rely on imports or foreign partnerships. Overall, the country can equip itself for average needs through native capability, but it might not be fully competitive with top-tier nations in high-stakes or high-performance applications.
60 Above-Average Native Capability: R&D: The country’s R&D in this domain is substantial and at times on par with global leaders. There are frequent innovations coming out of domestic labs; the country may even lead the world in a niche sub-area of the technology. R&D spending and output (papers, patents) are above the global mean, and the country is often involved in international cutting-edge projects. This reflects a deliberate push towards closing the gap with the leaders. Talent: A strong talent base has been established. The education system consistently produces a large number of well-trained experts, and many of them choose to work in-country due to ample opportunities. The nation might also start becoming a net importer of talent – for instance, diaspora experts return home, or foreign professionals join local companies/universities because the tech sector’s prospects are attractive. The best domestic minds are world-class, and the country’s diaspora networks might still bolster knowledge exchange. Development vs. Acquisition: The nation is largely self-reliant in this tech, with only limited need for external tech inputs. It can domestically design and manufacture most components and systems required. Strategic collaborations with other advanced countries might exist (for example, co-developing a new technology or sharing certain intellectual property), but these are collaborative by choice rather than out of necessity. Foreign tech is still used, but mostly for marginal gains or non-critical pieces – the country would manage reasonably well even if imports were curtailed, albeit at a slightly reduced efficiency. It is also increasingly exporting its own technological products to other countries, reflecting confidence in its capability. Ecosystem: A robust and mostly self-sufficient ecosystem underpins this capability. The domestic supply chain covers the majority of needs. For example, if this is the semiconductor domain, the country not only has chip design companies but also some fabrication plants, materials suppliers, and assembly/testing companies; if biotech, it has research labs, pharmaceutical manufacturing, biotech startups, etc. Infrastructure is up-to-date: advanced facilities (like large-scale manufacturing plants, high-performance computing centers, or specialized testing ranges) are operational. There may remain a few weak links where the country opts to import (due to cost efficiency or environmental reasons, etc.), but these do not critically undermine self-reliance. The ecosystem’s health is such that it can weather shocks or supply disruptions with careful management. Civilian/Military Use: Extensive deployment and initial global influence. In civilian sectors, the technology is widely diffused – it’s a significant contributor to the economy and societal applications (energy grid, healthcare, transportation, communication, etc., depending on the domain). The country’s products in this tech are becoming competitive internationally, and it may be recognized as a rising leader. Militarily, the armed forces benefit from mostly indigenous high-tech systems. The majority of new military platforms or capabilities in this domain are developed domestically or with minor foreign input. The nation’s military-tech complex can produce advanced equipment (for example, indigenous satellite launch vehicles, AI-driven defense systems, or next-gen energy weapons – as applicable) that give it a significant capability edge over average countries. While not yet the very top globally, the country’s dual-use proficiency (civil and defense) is formidable and continues to grow.
70 Strong Native Capability: R&D: The country is a global leader in research and innovation for this technology. Its domestic R&D not only keeps up with the world’s best but often pushes the frontier. The nation frequently publishes influential research and holds a significant share of high-impact patents or breakthroughs . Government and industry funding for R&D is very high, and the country may rank among the top few in R&D spending in this tech. It has notable research institutions or companies known worldwide for excellence in this field. Talent: An elite talent pool is in place. The country produces top-tier experts (graduates, PhDs) who are internationally respected, and it manages to retain much of this talent by offering cutting-edge facilities and opportunities. Moreover, it now attracts foreign talent instead of losing it – highly skilled professionals from elsewhere relocate to work in this country’s tech sector because it offers better prospects or resources (a reversal of brain drain has occurred) . The workforce is deep enough that the country can undertake multiple large, advanced projects at once (in academia, industry, and government). Development vs. Acquisition: Nearly all technology utilized can be developed indigenously. The country has full design, engineering, and production capabilities for even advanced systems. It might still import or collaborate on some cutting-edge elements (since even the strongest nations benefit from international collaboration), but crucially, it does not need to rely on others for any core aspect. If pressed, it could sustain its tech development in isolation for a substantial time. In fact, the flow is often the other way around: other countries seek to import this nation’s technology or license its intellectual property. The nation is a net exporter of high-tech. Its domestic products are competitive globally, and it holds significant market share or standard-setting influence in the domain. Ecosystem: A mature, self-sufficient ecosystem exists domestically. All critical pieces of the supply chain and infrastructure are present within the country or firmly secured through close allies. The country houses state-of-the-art facilities – for example, top-tier semiconductor fabs, world-class supercomputing centers, advanced rocket launch sites, cutting-edge biotech production plants, etc., as relevant. These facilities often incorporate homegrown technology. The ecosystem is resilient: it has redundancy and depth, meaning that a failure of one supplier or a foreign embargo would be manageable. This maturity greatly reduces any need to rely on external markets or suppliers . Domestic companies and research bodies are among the best in the world, often partnering with or outperforming their counterparts in other advanced nations. Civilian/Military Use: Full-spectrum capability is achieved. In the civilian economy, the technology’s presence is pervasive and propels significant economic value. Consumers and industries have access to homegrown products that are at or near the cutting-edge. The country might be a hub for this technology globally (for instance, a key exporter of advanced machinery, or home to major tech giants setting global trends). In the military domain, the nation fields advanced indigenous systems that rank among the world’s best. Its defense forces leverage this technology in sophisticated ways (e.g. AI in command systems, indigenous quantum encryption in communications, domestically-built fifth-generation fighter jets, etc.), giving it a strategic advantage. The country may also be a major supplier of military tech to allies (if policy allows), further cementing its status. In sum, a score of 70 indicates a country firmly in the top-tier bracket for this technology – it can hold its own against virtually any competitor in both civilian and defense realms.
80 Very Strong Native Capability (Near World-Leading): R&D: The nation is among the very few at the forefront of this technology globally. It consistently achieves breakthroughs and pioneers new applications or sub-disciplines. The country’s researchers and institutions are often the first to demonstrate next-generation advances. R&D investment is enormous and efficient, often yielding patents and scientific publications that shape the direction of the field. Internationally, this country is seen as a bellwether of technological progress in the domain. (Only one or two other countries might rival its research output and innovation pace.) Talent: The talent ecosystem is world-class. The education and training pipeline produces more experts than needed, allowing the country to pick the best and even help fill talent gaps abroad. There is a significant influx of global talent: leading scientists and engineers from other countries frequently move there, drawn by the opportunity to work with premier institutions and cutting-edge projects. The country has essentially become a global talent magnet, which reinforces its innovation capacity. Collaboration between domestic talent and top foreign minds is common, often with the country as the host and leader. Development vs. Acquisition: The country is capable of end-to-end domestic development for virtually all aspects of the technology at top performance levels. It might still engage in trade (export/import), but largely for non-essential components or by strategic choice (for example, to maintain diplomatic tech partnerships or economic efficiency). It is not dependent on any external technology to achieve state-of-the-art results. In fact, it often sets the technological pace that others follow. Other nations may need to partner with or buy from this country to keep up. (For instance, if the domain is space: only two or three nations can launch certain classes of missions, and this country is one of them; if AI: this country’s frameworks or hardware power a large share of global AI systems, etc.) Ecosystem: An extremely well-developed ecosystem underlies this capability. The nation has comprehensive infrastructure and supply chains, often with multiple domestic options for each component (ensuring redundancy). It possesses some unique facilities or expertise that few others have. The manufacturing base is highly advanced, able to produce the most complex products (e.g., the latest nanometer-scale chips, or the most advanced biotech compounds, etc.). The supply chain security is maximized – for any critical input, either a domestic source exists or reliable allies supply it (often the country has enough leverage to secure favorable terms). The overall ecosystem’s maturity means innovations rapidly go from lab to market. It also means the country could sustain itself in this tech indefinitely, if required, by drawing on internal resources and tightly-knit alliances. Civilian/Military Use: Comprehensive and cutting-edge. In civilian life, the technology is deeply embedded in everyday life and the country’s economic dominance. Many of the world’s high-tech consumer products or industrial systems in this domain originate from this country’s companies. The country likely plays a major role in setting international technical standards and best practices. In the military sphere, the nation’s capabilities are nearly peerless. Its armed forces have integrated this technology into doctrine and operations extensively, and most of its equipment in this domain is domestically produced and on par with (or second only to) the absolute best in the world. Only one other country (the world leader) might slightly exceed its military tech in some aspects. At this level, the country is recognized as a pole of technological power globally – a step below only the singular world leader, and in some sub-areas possibly equal to the leader.
90 World-Leading Native Capability: R&D: The country is the undisputed leader in research and innovation for this technology. It consistently contributes the largest share of top-tier discoveries, inventions, and intellectual property in the field . Breakthroughs pioneered here define the cutting-edge – the nation’s labs and companies are often the first to achieve milestones that others have not. R&D investment is at a scale and effectiveness unmatched elsewhere, resulting in a virtuous cycle of innovation. Talent: This nation possesses a premier talent ecosystem. Its universities and training programs are the best in the world for this domain, continually producing top experts. Crucially, it experiences “brain gain” – not only do domestic experts remain, but the best minds from around the world flock to this country to study and work, due to the unparalleled opportunities and facilities . The country has its pick of global talent, which it leverages to maintain leadership. The concentration of expertise is so high that it can undertake moonshot projects that others cannot.
Development vs. Acquisition: Virtually everything needed can be made domestically at world-class quality. The country has full-spectrum capability: from basic raw material processing (if relevant) to the most advanced product assembly, all can be done internally. It rarely needs to import technology; instead, it often supplies critical technology to others. The nation sets global standards, and its home-grown industries dominate high-tech markets. Other countries often license or purchase this country’s technology (or attempt to copy it) to keep up. In strategic terms, this country’s technological autonomy is maximal – it could be cut off from the world and still continue advancing in this field (though in practice it benefits from global markets and collaboration which it largely leads). Ecosystem: A fully mature, world-leading ecosystem supports this capability. Every component of the innovation pipeline, from research to production to end-use, is richly developed domestically. The infrastructure includes multiple world-class facilities (e.g., the most advanced manufacturing plants, research centers, testing ranges, supercomputing clusters, space launch systems, etc., depending on the tech). The supply chain is secure and under national control for all critical elements – if a crucial input is not available domestically, the country has stockpiles or the diplomatic/economic clout to ensure access. The country’s firms and institutions often are the global leaders in this tech, meaning it enjoys not just self-sufficiency but also influence over global supply networks. In short, no other nation has a superior ecosystem in this domain.
Civilian/Military Use: Unparalleled, benchmark status. In the civilian sector, the technology permeates the country’s economy and society at the highest level of sophistication, driving prosperity and shaping consumer behavior. The nation likely exports flagship products and advanced services worldwide, and its technology is emulated by others. It might be home to the top companies or research centers globally in this field. In military use, the country’s application of the technology grants it a dominant strategic advantage. Its armed forces field systems that are state-of-the-art globally, often developed domestically with classified capabilities that other militaries lack. The country may tightly control certain tech exports to maintain its edge. Being world-leading means that in both civilian innovation and military power projection related to this technology, this nation is the one setting the pace and others react to it. This is the 90/90 scenario – effectively the highest achievable national capability, reflecting world leadership in the truest sense.