From ancient empires to modern superpowers, the rise and decline of nations has been repeatedly shaped by their ability to develop, project and sustain national security capabilities across all domains of power.

National Security comprises the advanced, high-impact capabilities across air power, cyber capability, intelligence capability, land power, maritime power, nuclear capability and space capability that underpin a nation's power, prosperity and resilience, shaping its military and strategic advantage, economic competitiveness and growth, and capacity to withstand, adapt to and recover from systemic shocks, whilst determining its freedom of action and vulnerability in an increasingly contested global environment.

This research note provides a comprehensive assessment of national capability in national security across multiple dimensions. We introduce the domain and its strategic significance, present high-level national assessments using Pareto frontier methodology, and conduct detailed analysis of each of GINC's eight capability groups. The analysis includes five national case studies examining diverse strategic approaches, scenario testing and sensitivity analysis of national assessments, and exploration of data patterns including correlations between capability groups and alignment with published national framework definitions.

Contents

Introduction
National Assessments
Capability Groups
National Case Studies
Scenarios and Sensitivity Analysis
Data and Definitions

Introduction

National Security is one of nine domains assessed within the National Capability Framework and one of three domains that comprise the Hard Power pillar. It aggregates 29 underlying capabilities, organised into seven capability groups, which together define a nation's national security capacity. GINC's National Security framework provides a standardised taxonomy that maps to published national definitions, enabling systematic comparison of security capabilities across diverse strategic approaches and policy frameworks.

Figure 1. National Security Domain Overview

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, January 2026

Emerging National Assessments

GINC’s emerging national assessments use synthetic expert simulations to evaluate each nation across individual capabilities. For every capability, nations are assessed against a structured rubric ranging from No Plans (NP), indicating no current intention to develop the capability, through to AAA, representing performance at the global frontier.

Capability Groups, such as Cyber Capability, aggregate the underlying capability ratings to represent the group’s overall capability level. Within the National Security domain, these groups, listed in figure 1, comprise between three and six individual capabilities.

At the domain level, GINC expresses national capability in National Security using the Pareto frontier, which evaluates nations based on whether they dominate, or are dominated by other nations across all underlying capabilities. Rather than weighting indices such as Capability Groups, the Pareto approach places countries into peer groups, or Tiers, according to their relative position and distance from the capability frontier.

Figure 2. National Security Capability Tiers

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, January 2026

Capability Groups

National Security is one of nine domains in the National Capability Framework, comprising 29 capabilities organised into seven capability groups. GINC's framework provides a standardised taxonomy that enables systematic cross-national comparison of security capacity. Figure 4 presents the top five nations in each capability group, ranked by average capability score.

Figure 4. Top 5 Nations by National Security Capability Group

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, January 2026

Air Power shows tight clustering between the US, Israel and France, with China and the UK closely grouped. In Cyber Capability, Israel leads narrowly over the US, with China well ahead of South Korea and the UAE. The US leads Intelligence Capability marginally over Israel, with China and the UK tied, followed closely by France. Land Power sees the US ahead of Israel, with China and South Korea tied, followed by France. The US dominates Maritime Power substantially, with China trailing, then France, Japan and the UK clustered together. In Nuclear Capability, the US leads narrowly over Israel and France, with China and Chile tied. For Space Capability, the US leads substantially, with China well ahead of France, whilst Russia and Japan are tied further behind.

Examining capability group patterns across the 15 nations in Tiers 1, 2 and 3 reveals each nation's relative strengths and weaknesses. This analysis illustrates the three capability profiles—Balanced, Asymmetric and Specialised—introduced in Figure 1, demonstrating how Pareto dominance evaluates performance across all dimensions simultaneously rather than relying on simple averages.

Figure 5. Capability Group Profiles of the Top 3 Tiers

Figure 6. Global Capability Group Distribution

Land Power

Land Power encompasses six underlying capabilities spanning the full spectrum of ground combat operations, from heavily armoured formations through to elite special operations units. These capabilities range from main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles through to sophisticated command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems that coordinate distributed forces across the modern battlefield.

Figure 7. Land Power Capabilities. Frontier Nations and Global Rating Distribution

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, January 2026

Maritime Power

Maritime Power encompasses five underlying capabilities spanning the full spectrum of naval operations, from blue-water power projection through to undersea warfare. These capabilities range from aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships through to nuclear-powered submarines and advanced surface combatants that control the maritime domain and project force across the globe's oceans.

Figure 7. Maritime Power Capabilities. Frontier Nations and Global Rating Distribution

Source. GINC Data Laboratory, January 2026

Air Power

Air Power encompasses four underlying capabilities spanning the full spectrum of aerial operations, from air superiority through to long-range strike. These capabilities range from fifth-generation fighter aircraft and strategic bombers through to transport fleets and attack helicopters that dominate the skies and project power across vast distances.

Figure 7. Air Power Capabilities. Frontier Nations and Global Rating Distribution

Space Capability

Space Capability encompasses three underlying capabilities spanning the full spectrum of orbital operations, from launch infrastructure through to defensive and offensive space systems. These capabilities range from heavy-lift launch vehicles and satellite constellations through to space situational awareness and counterspace technologies that enable nations to access, exploit and defend the ultimate high ground.

Figure 7. Space Capability Capabilities. Frontier Nations and Global Rating Distribution

Intelligence Capability

Intelligence Capability encompasses five underlying capabilities spanning the full spectrum of information collection and analysis, from human operations through to advanced technical sensors. These capabilities range from clandestine human networks and signals interception through to satellite imagery analysis and open-source exploitation that enable nations to understand adversary intentions, capabilities and vulnerabilities across all domains.

Figure 7. Intelligence Capability Capabilities. Frontier Nations and Global Rating Distribution

Cyber Capability

Cyber Capability encompasses three underlying capabilities spanning the full spectrum of operations in the digital domain, from intelligence gathering through to offensive strike. These capabilities range from covert network exploitation and espionage through to defensive hardening of critical infrastructure and offensive operations that can disrupt, degrade or destroy adversary systems, enabling nations to operate, persist and prevail in cyberspace.

Figure 7. Cyber Capability Capabilities. Frontier Nations and Global Rating Distribution

Nuclear Capability

Nuclear Capability encompasses three underlying capabilities spanning the full spectrum of strategic deterrence, from command systems through to industrial sustainment. These capabilities range from nuclear command, control and communications infrastructure and employment doctrine through to deployed warheads with delivery platforms and the industrial capacity to maintain, modernise and expand nuclear arsenals over time.

Figure 7. Nuclear Capability Capabilities. Frontier Nations and Global Rating Distribution

National Case Studies

United States

Israel

China

France

Russia