🇨🇳 China's National Capability. GINC's Emerging Assessment.
China is ranked 2nd in the Hard Capability domain behind the US, however ranks 15th across all nine capability domains, reflecting still emerging Soft Capabilities and Economic Capabilities.
QUICK TAKE · AI Summary
- 🇨🇳 China is ranked 2nd in the Hard Capability domain behind the US, however ranks 15th across all nine capability domains, reflecting still emerging Soft Capabilities and Economic Capabilities.
- 🇨🇳 China sits on the global frontier (T1) for Strategic Infrastructure, shared with 10 global peers. With five strong T2 capability domains, China is poised to achieve the global frontier (T1) in a number of domains by 2030.
- GINC's National Capability Assessments focus on capability quality, not quantity and favour broad dominance over specialisation, further disadvantaging 🇨🇳 China's clear global leadership in a range of national capabilities.
Figure 1. China’s National Capability Relative to Global Frontier Nations
| Capability | ABBREV | 🇨🇳 Tier | Frontier Nations – T1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Capability | |||
| Critical Technology | CT | 🇨🇳 T2 | 🇺🇸 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | SI | 🇨🇳 T1 | 🇨🇳🇨🇭🇫🇮🇯🇵🇰🇷🇳🇱🇳🇴🇸🇬🇸🇪🇦🇪🇺🇸 |
| National Security | NS | 🇨🇳 T2 | 🇮🇱🇺🇸 |
| Soft Capability | |||
| Human Capital | HC | 🇨🇳 T3 | 🇨🇭🇪🇪🇮🇱🇸🇬🇺🇸 |
| Information Influence | II | 🇨🇳 T2 | 🇩🇰🇫🇮🇯🇵🇰🇷🇳🇱🇳🇴🇸🇬🇸🇪🇨🇭🇦🇪🇺🇸 |
| Governance Integrity | GI | 🇨🇳 T4 | 🇨🇭🇩🇰🇪🇪🇫🇮🇮🇱🇳🇴🇸🇬🇸🇪 |
| Economic Capability | |||
| Financial Strength | FS | 🇨🇳 T3 | 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇸🇬🇸🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸 |
| Production & Innovation | PI | 🇨🇳 T2 | 🇨🇭🇮🇱🇰🇷🇸🇬🇸🇪🇺🇸 |
| Investment & Trade | IT | 🇨🇳 T2 | 🇨🇭🇪🇪🇮🇱🇰🇷🇸🇬🇺🇸 |
Source. GINC Data Laboratory, January 2026
Figure 2. Top 10 Capability Groups for China
| Rank | Capability Domain | Capability Group | Score | PERC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategic Infrastructure | 🇨🇳 Energy Infrastructure | 17.3 | 100.0% |
| 1 | Strategic Infrastructure | 🇨🇳 Advanced Manufacturing | 17.0 | 100.0% |
| 1 | Strategic Infrastructure | 🇨🇳 Resource Infrastructure | 17.0 | 100.0% |
| 1 | Production & Innovation | 🇨🇳 Industrial & Manufacturing Capacity | 15.0 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Critical Technology | 🇨🇳 Quantum Computing | 17.5 | 99.5% |
| 2 | Strategic Infrastructure | 🇨🇳 Transport Infrastructure | 17.3 | 99.5% |
| 2 | Strategic Infrastructure | 🇨🇳 Comms Infrastructure | 17.3 | 99.5% |
| 2 | Strategic Infrastructure | 🇨🇳 AI & Digital Infrastructure | 17.0 | 99.5% |
| 2 | Critical Technology | 🇨🇳 Advanced Materials | 17.0 | 99.5% |
| 2 | Critical Technology | 🇨🇳 Position, Navigation & Timing | 17.0 | 99.5% |
Figure 3. Bottom 10 Capability Groups for China
| Rank | Capability Domain | Capability Group | Score | PERC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Information & Influence | 🇨🇳 National Identity & Social Cohesion | 12.7 | 85.5% |
| 33 | Human Capital | 🇨🇳 Public Health & Wellness | 13.3 | 85.0% |
| 33 | Financial Strength | 🇨🇳 Fiscal Strength & Sovereign Creditworthiness | 12.7 | 85.0% |
| 35 | Governance & Integrity | 🇨🇳 Integrity & Anti-Corruption | 12.3 | 84.1% |
| 42 | Financial Strength | 🇨🇳 Financial Governance & Regulation | 12.3 | 80.8% |
| 49 | Governance & Integrity | 🇨🇳 Policy & Regulatory Quality | 12.0 | 77.6% |
| 50 | Financial Strength | 🇨🇳 Monetary & Currency Stability | 11.7 | 77.1% |
| 74 | Governance & Integrity | 🇨🇳 Public Trust & Legitimacy | 10.7 | 65.9% |
| 125 | Governance & Integrity | 🇨🇳 Judicial Independence / Civil Liberties | 10.0 | 42.1% |
| 126 | Governance & Integrity | 🇨🇳 Transparency & Accountability | 10.0 | 41.6% |
