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# GINC Scenarios / 2026
- URL: https://www.ginc.org/ginc-scenarios-2026/
- Published: 2026-09-07T04:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-07T14:10:02.000Z
- Author: Global Institute for National Capability
- Tags: Simulations, Insights

## Intro

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| Area                          | Scenario                               | Upside/Downside |
| ----------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | --------------- |
| Economic and trade            | Geoeconomic confrontation              | Downside        |
| Economic and trade            | Single-supplier cut-off                | Downside        |
| Economic and trade            | Global financial crisis                | Downside        |
| Economic and trade            | Sovereign funding crisis               | Downside        |
| Economic and trade            | Coordinated sovereign debt reset       | Upside          |
| Economic and trade            | Emerging-market growth breakout        | Upside          |
| Geopolitical and security     | Maritime chokepoint closure            | Downside        |
| Geopolitical and security     | Hybrid campaign by a hostile state     | Downside        |
| Geopolitical and security     | Political legitimacy crisis            | Downside        |
| Geopolitical and security     | Mass displacement shock                | Downside        |
| Geopolitical and security     | Great-power détente and peace dividend | Upside          |
| Geopolitical and security     | Middle East regional settlement        | Upside          |
| Energy, climate and resources | Energy supply shock                    | Downside        |
| Energy, climate and resources | Catastrophic disaster in the core      | Downside        |
| Energy, climate and resources | Food and water system shock            | Downside        |
| Energy, climate and resources | Energy abundance breakthrough          | Upside          |
| Energy, climate and resources | Agricultural yield revolution          | Upside          |
| Technology and infrastructure | Critical infrastructure collapse       | Downside        |
| Technology and infrastructure | Rapid AI diffusion shock               | Downside        |
| Technology and infrastructure | Superintelligence takeoff              | Upside          |
| Technology and infrastructure | Digital public infrastructure leapfrog | Upside          |
| Health                        | Pandemic with a novel pathogen         | Downside        |
| Health                        | Biomedical breakthrough wave           | Upside          |
| Health                        | Hundred-day pandemic defence           | Upside          |

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##   
  
2026 Scenarios

## Super Intelligence Takeoff